Blog

Predicting the next Supreme Court Justice (Round 2)

Soon after last November’s election, we launched FantasyJustice – a prediction tracker for President Trump’s first Supreme Court nomination. We borrowed from the same ideas – and the same crowd – as FantasySCOTUS, and asked participants to predict the next Supreme Court Justice by answering two questions:

  • Who would be nominated as the next Supreme Court justice?
  • By what date would they be confirmed?

FantasyJustice had predicted Gorsuch by the 20th of November, not even two weeks after the election. With momentary exceptions, Gorsuch never fell from that lead up until the actual announcement at 8PM on January 31st. Our not-for-money crowd correctly nailed it, as shown in the figure below.

Prediction the next Supreme Court justice

Prediction of the next Supreme Court justice

Since then, pundits have debated and Senators have suggested that another vacancy could be coming this year. Nothing is certain, but we want to be prepared. FantasyJustice is now up and running again. We’ve re-launched with a fresh leaderboard and archive statistics for the Gorsuch appointment. Head over to the main page to predict the next Supreme Court Justice. You can also check out the current nomination leaderboard here. If you’re interested in the historical statistics, you can still find them here.

We did a write-up last time on the method behind our madness. We use three methods to predict the future: experts, crowds, and algorithms applied to legal analytics. You should definitely read all about our process.