Blog

FantasySCOTUS Update: The First Post-Scalia Cases

Today the Supreme Court issued its first two decisions without Justice Scalia: Lockhart v. United States (sentencing) and Gobeille v. Liberty Mutual Insurance Company (ERISA). FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ missed both.

lockhart gobeille

Lockhart and Gobeille

For Lockhart, the Crowd and the Algorithm both predicted 6-2 reversals. The final decision was 6-2, but in the other direction. The Court affirmed in a 6-2 decision. The Crowd and the Algorithm were divided regarding Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Thomas, but the real surprises came from Kennedy, Ginsburg, and Sotomayor all affirming.

Lockhart v. US

In the Gobeille case, a similar phenomenon occurred. The Crowd once again predicted a 6-2 reversal, but this time the {Marshall}+ Algorithm predicted a unanimous reversal. As with Lockhart, the final decision was a 6-2 affirm, blowing both predictions away.

GobeilleThis time, the Crowd and the Algorithm differed markedly on where Alito and Thomas would fall, but neither predicted that Breyer, Kagan, Kennedy, and Chief Justice Roberts would all affirm. A big miss on these two cases.