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FantasySCOTUS Update: Four Cases Decided on 1/25/16

Today the Supreme Court decided four cases: Montgomery v. Louisiana (8th Amendment), Musacchio v. United States (Criminal Procedure), Menominee Tribe of Wisconsin v. United States (Civil Procedure), and FERC v. Electric Power Supply Association (Regulatory Law). The FantasySCOTUS crowd went 3-for-4, and the {Marshall}+ Algorithm went 4-for-4.

In Montgomery v. Louisiana, both the Crowd and the Algorithm accurately predicted a reversal, but disagreed on the split.

montgomery louisiana

Montgomery v. Louisiana

The biggest disagreements between the Crowd’s prediction and the Algorithm’s prediction were with respect to 3 of the conservative Justices, Scalia, Thomas and Alito. Here, the Crowd was clearly the winner, though the Algorithm did narrowly predict that Thomas would ultimately decide to affirm.

Musacchio v. U.S. was a rare case that yielded a 9-0 affirm. The Crowd nailed this. The Algorithm squeezed by, predicting a 5-4 affirm.

musacchio v us

Musacchio v. United States

Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin v. U.S. was another 9-0 affirm that the Crowd got correctly. Under the Algorithm, the four votes to reverse were even weaker than they were for Musacchio (below 56%).

menominee tribe wisconsin united states

Menominee Tribe of Wisconsin v. United States

In FERC v. Electric Power Supply Association., the vote split 6-2 to reverse (Justice Alito recused). {Marshall}+ predicted an 8-0 reverse. FantasySCOTUS, interestingly, predicted a 4-4 affirm.

ferc electric power supply assoc

FERC v. Electric Power Supply Association

The biggest variance here concerned Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kennedy.

The {Marshall}+ Algorithm accurately predicted all 4 of these cases, but with much smaller margins. The FantasySCOTUS Crowd, meanwhile, didn’t bat a thousand, but the 3 predictions they did get right cleaved much closer to the eventual outcomes.