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FantasySCOTUS Update for Cases Decided on 1/20/16

Today the Court decided five cases (although three of them were consolidated). Both the Crowd and the Algorithm accurately predicted the outcomes in 4 out of the 5 cases. Although, neither the Crowd nor the Algorithm got the splits correct in any of the cases.

five cases january 2016

Five Cases

In Montanile v. Board of Trustees of National Elevator Industry (ERISA), the Court reversed 8-1. Only Justice Ginsburg dissented.

montanile board trustees national elevator industry health benefit plan

Montanile v. Board of Trustees of the National Elevator Industry

Not a single user picked up on Justice Ginsburg’s dissent and predicted the 8-1 reversal. This despite a similar dissent from Ginsburg on a substantially similar case back in 2003. As her dissent today noted:

What brings the Court to that bizarre conclusion? As developed in my dissenting opinion in Great-West Life & Annuity Ins. Co. v. Knudson, 534 U. S. 204, 224–234 (2002), the Court erred profoundly in that case by reading the work product of a Congress sitting in 1974 as “unravel[ling] forty years of fusion of law and equity, solely by employing the benign sounding word ‘equitable’ when authorizing ‘appropriate equitable relief.’” Langbein, What ERISA Means by “Eq- uitable”: The Supreme Court’s Trail of Error in Russell, Mertens, and Great-West, 103 Colum. L. Rev. 1317, 1365 (2003).

In our next case, Campbell-Ewald Co. v. Gomez (a class-action case) the Court affirmed 6-3. We totally missed this one. Both the Crowd and the Algorithm predicted a reversal, although the Crowd did predict a 5-4 split on their forecast reversal.

campbell-ewald gomez

Campbell-Ewald v. Gomez

The Crowd predicted a sharp divide, and interestingly, it was Justices Kennedy and Thomas who threw the biggest curveballs here.

The final three consolidated cases – Kansas v. Jonathan Carr, Kansas v. Reginald Carr, and Kansas v. Gleason – concerned a death penalty jury instruction case. The outcome was an 8-1 Reverse. Both the Crowd and the Algorithm predicted the outcome, but neither got the correct split. Individual users, however, correctly predicted Justice Sotomayor would dissent alone.

kansas carr gleason

Kansas v. J. Carr, Kansas v. R. Carr, and Kansas v. Gleason

With 10 cases decided, the FantasySCOTUS crowd and {Marshall}+ Algorithm have each correctly predicted 80% of the cases thus far. However, the Justice Accuracy Rate is much higher for the Crowd. As for the Expert Crowd, they’ve nailed 90% of the cases so far.

top cases january 21 2016

Top Cases for January 21, 2016

Here are the rankings for the top 20 users.

top 20 users january 2016

Top 20 Users, January 2016